Op-Ed: Leaflit – The Tobacco Debacle: Is Cannabis Australia’s Next Multi-Billion Dollar Policy Failure?

I understand what they are trying to say but cannabis has been a policy failure for all of our lifetimes and yes it will remain so if governments federalm and state  go down the same taxation “solution” but in the end if we keep framing cannabis as only a determinant of of health and economic system(s) then yes the quicksands of stupidity will swallow all of it.

Leaflit

By Sophie Lane

Contributing Editor, LeafLit.media

For years, Australia’s tobacco taxation strategy was held up as a global public health success story.

Successive governments increased tobacco excise with a clear objective. Make cigarettes less affordable, discourage smoking, improve health outcomes, and collect significant tax revenue in the process.

The theory appeared sound.

The reality has become far more complicated.

Australia now finds itself confronting what many experts describe as one of the largest illicit tobacco markets in the developed world. Government tobacco excise revenues have fallen dramatically. Illegal tobacco stores have emerged across major cities and regional centres. Criminal syndicates have become increasingly involved in the trade. Firebombings, extortion attempts, and violent turf wars linked to illicit tobacco sales have become alarmingly common headlines.

The situation has prompted a growing number of commentators to ask whether policymakers ignored warning signs for too long.

More importantly, it raises another uncomfortable question.

Could Australia be making a similar mistake with cannabis?

When Economic Reality Collides with Public Policy

The tobacco black market did not appear overnight.

For years, economists, retailers, law enforcement agencies, and industry groups warned that relentless price increases would eventually create opportunities for illicit suppliers.

The argument was never particularly complicated.

Consumer demand for tobacco remained substantial.

As legal prices increased, some consumers would inevitably seek cheaper alternatives.

Those alternatives would not come from licensed retailers.

They would come from criminal enterprises willing to supply the product without taxes, regulations, or oversight.

That is precisely what occurred.

Today, illicit tobacco products are widely available across Australia. Criminal groups have identified tobacco as an extraordinarily profitable commodity. Legitimate businesses have lost customers. Governments have lost billions in revenue.

The outcome represents a classic example of unintended consequences.

Smoking still exists.

Demand still exists.

But an increasing proportion of economic activity has shifted into the shadows.

Following the Money

The tobacco crisis highlights a simple economic reality.

Read more at

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/tobacco-debacle-cannabis-australias-next-multi-billion-dollar-vcngc/

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