Criminologist Prof. Dr. Jörg Kinzig, responsible for the legal science part of the EKOCAN study, has sharply rejected the accusations made by Federal Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt. Dobrindt had accused the researchers of presenting a “distorted picture of reality” and ignoring findings from security authorities. In an interview with LTO, Kinzig responded that this criticism was “completely unfounded.” In fact, the perspective of authorities takes up significant space; more than 2,000 police officers were surveyed and numerous expert interviews were conducted with customs authorities and public prosecutors.
Kinzig emphasized that the black market is already being pushed back by home cultivation and Medical Cannabis, while the feared massive increase in consumption has so far failed to materialize. Record quantities of cannabis seizures are more likely attributable to oversupply in countries such as the USA or Thailand rather than the German reform. It is “disappointing” that a federal minister is attempting to discredit an independent research consortium in order to pursue a political agenda. He recommended that the minister should read the report in order to engage with the facts objectively.
Source: German Cannabis Buusiness Assoc
LTO Full report
Interior Minister Dobrindt (CSU) has accused scientists of ignoring findings from security authorities when evaluating the partial legalization of cannabis. The criminologist in charge rejects the criticism.
LTO: Professor Kinzig, you and your Tübingen team are responsible for the legal part of the independent scientific consortium EKOCAN (“Evaluation of the Consumer Cannabis Act”) commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Health. EKOCAN to study the impact of cannabis partial legalization by 2028. The second EKOCAN report has now been available since 1 April. The Federal Minister of the Interior was not convinced by her study –to put it kindly–.
Prof. Dr. Jörg Kinzig: First of all: EKOCAN examines the effects of the partial legalization of cannabis through the Consumer Cannabis Act (KCanG), which has been in force since April 2024. The mandate to do so is enshrined in the law itself.
After last year we first interim report with a focus primarily on child and youth protection, this time the focus was on how the reform has affected organized crime and the black market.
It has emerged that the black market is being pushed back by the moderate increase in home cultivation and the increased purchase of medical cannabis from pharmacies, while the feared significant increase in cannabis consumption has so far failed to materialise. It could go even faster with the displacement of the black market if the legislature pushes ahead with the expansion of the currently overregulated cultivation associations. After all, these are the places provided for in the law where consumers –if they do not grow cannabis at home– can legally purchase cannabis in Germany.
As far as the effects of partial legalization on organized crime are concerned, these cannot yet be conclusively assessed seriously after such a short period of validity of the KCanG. We explained this in detail in our study.
The reaction of the Federal Minister of the Interior to our preliminary results was therefore completely inappropriate, even in its severity.
Dobrindt: Evaluation paints a “completely distorted picture of reality”
Mr. Dobrindt accuses you and your colleagues of presenting “a completely distorted picture of reality.” “It is clearly also due to the methodology of the analysis,” the Interior Minister told ARD. He criticizes the fact that findings from the security authorities were ignored.
It had already become apparent in advance that the Federal Minister of the Interior would not be satisfied with the results of the evaluation. However, the direction and intensity of his criticism of the interim report, which was more than 200 pages long, also came as a surprise to us as part of the research network. This is because it is completely unfounded, but the perspective of the security authorities takes up a large part of the study.
To what extent had Dobrindt’s dissatisfaction become apparent?
Well, the Union’s blanket rejection of the partial legalization of cannabis is well known: the law should ideally be repealed completely. And as recently as October, Mr. Dobrindt bluntly described the KCanG as a “shitty law.” The fact that, according to our previous studies, the assessment of partial legalization is mixed and that the expected, clearly negative picture does not emerge naturally causes dissatisfaction.
More than 2,000 police officers interviewed
Why is Mr Dobrindt not right when he claims that you ignored findings from the security authorities?
In particular, to capture the view of practice, we interviewed more than 2,000 judicial police personnel and conducted over 20 interviews with experts from the police, public prosecutors and customs sectors. These comprehensive surveys were only possible in the short time available because the research network received intensive and meritorious support in collecting data from the Federal Criminal Police Office, the Federal Ministry of Finance, customs, the state interior ministries and the state police forces.
In addition, the report presents various statements from the security authorities, some of which are even reproduced verbatim. Last but not least, the report extensively analyses all current data from the police, the judiciary and customs – including those that were only made available to EKOCAN a few weeks before the report was published.
Accusing us researchers now of not taking into account the experience of the security authorities is really completely unfounded.
What did the questioning of the prosecution reveal?
Our interviews revealed that, as a result of partial legalization, it has become more difficult for law enforcement officers to hold black market actors accountable for the prohibited trade in cannabis. They also complain that certain powers in the area of undercover investigations have been taken away from them.
Criminal procedural investigative measures may therefore need to be readjusted. But as I said, it is still too early for robust recommendations. We will know more by the final report in April 2028.
Cannabis record quantities probably not due to partial legalization
In 2025, not only were around 200 tons of medical cannabis imported into Germany. Their report also addresses the fact that customs have withdrawn more cannabis from circulation last year than ever before.
Good thing you brought that up. The Federal Ministry of Finance thankfully provided us with figures on customs freezing quantities before the customs year statistics were published. This finding supports the fact that the black market is far from being drained.
But it was not only German customs that recorded a massive increase in cannabis seized last year. Similarly great successes were also celebrated in the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, England and Wales, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Austria and Spain. In most of these countries, the authorities discovered –as in Germany– mainly large imports from the USA, Canada and Thailand. Interestingly, these are countries that (partially) legalized cannabis before Germany.
What could be the reason for this development?
One possible explanation is that illegal producers in these countries are increasingly stuck with their cannabis due to the increased legal supply there. Therefore, they could try to sell the substance on the European market.
However, it is unlikely that partial legalization in Germany is responsible for this development. At best, it could be that Germany has become a little more attractive as a transshipment point for cannabis due to the reduced penalty limits. All these considerations can of course also be found in our interim report.
“Mr. Dobrindt should read our report”
The black market, or so the Federal Minister of the Interior claims, is booming. The Consumer Cannabis Act is a “cudgel” with a crime-promoting effect. Can’t the record quantities seized indicate that demand for illegal cannabis has skyrocketed as a result of partial legalization?
No, several population surveys and wastewater monitoring in 15 German cities show that consumption has increased only slightly since partial legalization. In any case, the feared significant increase has not yet occurred.
Your comments suggest that the Federal Minister of the Interior may not have read your report at all.
You have to assume that. If Mr Dobrindt is wondering how the security authorities feel about the partial legalisation of cannabis, I can only warmly recommend that he read our interim report. He doesn’t even have to read through all 200 pages to do that. The brief summary that we have prefaced each chapter should suffice.
“Reckless pursuit of one’s own political agenda”
For another two years, the research network will study the effects of partial legalization. A final report is scheduled to follow in April 2028. How much does it annoy you when your scientific work is reacted to in the way that Mr Dobrindt did?
This is, above all, disappointing. And, incidentally, also for the dedicated work of my colleagues at the university hospitals in Hamburg and Düsseldorf.
For evidence-based legislation that is repeatedly called for, it is a stroke of luck that the KCanG provides for an independent scientific evaluation. But this only has criminal policy value if the politicians responsible engage with the research findings impartially and do not ruthlessly pursue their own political agenda.
Of course, one can hold different views on the KCanG or interpret the data presented differently; the research report is a treasure trove for this. However, it is unacceptable for a federal minister to try to discredit an entire multidisciplinary research network of at least three universities.
Where such a devaluation of scientific work can lead can currently be observed on the other side of the Atlantic.
Professor Kinzig, we thank you for the conversation.
Prof. Dr. Jörg Kinzig is Director of the Institute of Criminology at the University of Tübingen. The institute, together with the Center for Interdisciplinary Addiction Research at the University Hospital Hamburg-Eppendorf and the Centre for Health and Society at the University Hospital Düsseldorf, is evaluating the effects of partial cannabis legalization. The EKOCAN final report is expected in April 2028.
https://www.lto.de/recht/hintergruende/h/cannabis-evaluierung-dobrindt-kritik-ekocan-kinzig-weedmob
Evaluation of the Act on the Handling of Cannabis for Non-Medical Use: EKOCAN research project
The aim of the EKOCAN research project is to analyse the effects of the German Act on the Handling of Cannabis for Non-Medical Use (“Konsumcannabisgesetz”, KCanG) on
- child and youth protection
- general health protection
- cannabis-related crime.
To this end, a wide variety of data is collated (e.g. from ongoing population surveys on substance use), own surveys are conducted (e.g. with consumers and growers’ associations) and the data is finally analysed with regard to the overarching objectives mentioned above. The project is supported by an advisory board in which the federal departments involved and organisations directly concerned with the topic are represented.
