As highlighted by reports in the German Cannabis Business Association weekly update
On one hand the news is good
Assessment of Partial Cannabis Legalization: Declining Offenses with Stable Consumption Trends
2026-03-25 | Two years after the introduction of partial legalization, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) has drawn an initial assessment of its societal impact, according to Tagesspiegel. The data indicate that the feared sharp increase in consumption has not materialized. Overall prevalence has reached 9.8%, but this rise follows a long-term trend observed since 2012. The share of heavy users has increased only marginally from 1.5% (2021) to 1.6% (2024). According to study author Andreea-Maria Stoica, wastewater analyses also show no systematic impact of the reform on consumption behavior.
The most significant effect is seen in law enforcement: cannabis-related offenses declined from nearly 174,000 cases in 2023 to just under 62,000 in 2024, effectively reducing this category to about one-third. Black market prices have remained stable at around €10 per gram of flower.
However, developments in other illicit substances are considered concerning and appear independent of the cannabis reform. In particular, cocaine and crack-related offenses have steadily increased since 2014, reaching around 29,000 cases in 2024, nearly matching amphetamines. As these markets lack regulatory tools such as age restrictions or taxation, DIW recommends a stronger focus on addiction counseling and prevention.
On the other hand .. not so good
BKA criticism and smuggling shift: two-year review of cannabis reform
2026-03-25 | BKA President Holger Münch drew a critical conclusion two years after the reform of the Cannabis Act (KCanG), as reported by Stern. He noted a still-thriving black market, as home cultivation and clubs cannot meet demand. In addition to imports from Morocco and Spain, increasing volumes are now reportedly coming from the USA and Canada. Münch criticized high possession limits, which make it more difficult for police to identify small-scale dealers. While policymakers, including Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU), see a need for adjustments, cannabis allegedly remains a lucrative source of income for criminals.
At the same time, cartels are changing tactics: in cocaine trafficking, gangs increasingly use smaller ports and GPS-assisted sea drops. Following the cultivation ban in Afghanistan, heroin prices have risen, leading to dangerous adulteration with synthetic substances. Meanwhile, journalist Hasso Suliak criticized the timing of these statements as “poor style.” Münch is pushing prohibitionist narratives even though the official second evaluation report on partial legalization under § 43 KCanG is only due next Wednesday.
I think i’ll stick with the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) rather than what politicians have to say
